COMPARING THE PERFORMANCES OF THE PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM AND TIME-SERIES APPROACHES TO HEDGING

This research compares partial equilibrium and statistical time-series approaches to hedging. The finance literature stresses the former approach, while the applied economics literature has focused on the latter. We compare the out-of-sample hedging effectiveness of the two approaches when hedging commodity price risk using a simple derivative with a linear payoff function (a futures contract). For various methods of parameter estimation and inference, we find that the partial equilibrium models cannot out-perform the time series model. The partial equilibrium models unpalatable assumptions of deterministically evolving futures volatility seems to impede their hedging effectiveness, even when potentially foresighted option-implied volatility term structures are employed.Marketing,

BEYOND THE MODEL SPECIFICATION PROBLEM: MODEL AND PARAMETER AVERAGING USING BAYESIAN TECHNIQUES

The model specification problem is perhaps the Achilles heel of applied econometrics. Rather than test down to a single model as is usually done, we estimate 72 different demand systems and use Bayesian averaging procedures over all 72 systems to generate meta estimates of the parameters (e.g., elasticities) of interest.Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

CONTRACT MARKET VIABILITY

Academia and the finance industry generate many proposals for new contract markets. Unfortunately, many proposed markets lack the critical attributes that promote success. We examine these attributes, and evaluate the potential of several announced proposals. We find that proposals emanating from the academy generally fail to consider the full suite of integrated financial services necessary to support a viable market, while proposals put forward by practitioners are much more likely to do so.Marketing,

Proving causal relationships using observational data

We describe a means of rejecting a null hypothesis concerning observed, but not deliberately manipulated, variables of the form H0: A -/-> B in favor of an alternative hypothesis HA: A --> B, even given the possibility of causally related unobserved variables. Rejection of such an H0 relies on the availability of two observed and appropriately related instrumental variables. While the researcher will have limited control over the confidence level in this test, simulation results suggest that type I errors occur with a probability of less than 0.15 (often substantially less) across a wide range of circumstances. The power of the test is limited if there are but few observations available and the strength of correspondence among the variables is weak. We demonstrate the method by testing a hypothesis with critically important policy implications relating to a possible cause of childhood malnourishment.causality, Monte Carlo, observational data, hypothesis testing, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Estimating Actual Bid-Ask Spreads in Commodity Futures Markets

Various bid-ask spread estimators are applied to transaction data from LIFFE cocoa and coffee futures markets, and the resulting estimates are compared to observed actual bid-ask spreads. Results suggest that actual bid-ask spreads, which are not reported by most open-outcry futures markets, can be reasonably estimated using readily available transaction data. This is especially important since recent research seems to indicate that efforts to estimate effective spreads using data commonly available from futures markets have not been successful. Thus estimates of actual spreads can give market participants and researchers some idea of potential transaction costs. Accurate estimates of bid-ask spreads will also be needed to assess the relative efficiency of electronic versus open-outcry trading. Results indicate that estimators using averages of absolute price changes perform significantly better at estimating actual bid-ask spreads in futures markets than estimators using the covariance of successive price changes.Marketing,

PRICE AND PRICE RISK DYNAMICS IN BARGE AND OCEAN FREIGHT MARKETS AND THE EFFECTS ON COMMODITY TRADING

The effects of volatility of barge and ocean freight prices on prices throughout the international grain-marketing channel are analyzed using a Multivariate GARCH-M model. The model is used to infer the extent to which transportation price risk affects the level of international grain prices. Results indicate that both barge and ocean price volatility influence grain prices, but barge price volatility tends to have a greater impact on grain prices than that arising from ocean price volatility. The lack of a futures contract for barge rates may be partially responsible for its significant influence on grain price levels.Barge and ocean freight prices, futures contracts, Multivariate GARCH-Models, Price volatility, International Relations/Trade,

Rice World Market Prices

The marketing loan program associated with rice features benefits calculated using a USDA-announced World Market Price (WMP) rather than the posted county prices that are used for most other commodities. This results in reduced risk protection for producers relative to other crops, and greater difficulty in making optimal use of program benefits. This research investigates the rice WMP, identifying the relative importance of various foreign prices and other potential influencing factors. The results of this research have important implications for financial planning and optimal risk management strategies for rice producers.Agricultural and Food Policy,

Aggregate Milk Supply Response to the Milk Income Loss Contract Program

This research tests for changes in aggregate milk production due to the operation of the Milk Income Loss Contract (MILC) program since 2002. Aggregate production is decomposed into the size of the dairy herd and milk production per cow. We find no statistically significant response in either variable. This finding implies that the simultaneous operation of income and price support programs in the United States has not, thus far, proven self-defeating.dairy, income support, policy, price support, Agribusiness, Livestock Production/Industries,

An Analysis of Cointegration: Investigation of the Cost-Price Squeeze in Agriculture

The differences in prices paid and prices received by farmers are examined using cointegration analysis. A Johansen cointegration test between prices paid and prices received revealed that the series were cointegrated. After accounting for technological change, we do not reject a long-run one-for-one correspondence between prices paid and prices received.Demand and Price Analysis,

The Net Effect of Exchange Rates on Agricultural Inputs and Outputs

For more than thirty years, studies about the effect of the exchange rate on exports have been conducted. However, few have considered the combined effect of the exchange rate on imported inputs into the agricultural system and the exports of final agricultural products those inputs produce. A current concern is for the net effect as the total value and quantity of inputs imported has increased. This research examines the effect of exchange rate changes on imported inputs into the corn, wheat, and beef cattle production systems. Effects on cost of production budgets are calculated, examining affects on profitability. Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) models were estimated to evaluate those effects. Daily and weekly price data were used for corn, wheat, feeder steers, ethanol, diesel, ammonia, urea, di-ammonium phosphate, and the exchange rate. A VAR model was estimated to model the relationship between the variables. After having incongruous test results in determining the lag length structure it was decided that a BACE model would be approximated. After estimating the BACE model the price responses of the commodities to the exchange rates was estimated. The price responses were used in demonstrating the effect of the exchange rate on a producer’s profitability. It was determined that, generally, a strengthening exchange rate has a negative impact on prices. It was also found that the exchange rate has a greater impact on prices now than it did 14 years ago, implying that the exchange rate now has a greater affect on profitability. A one percent increase in the value of the dollar led to a decline in profitability ranging from $0.02/bu in wheat to$0.56/cwt in feeder steers. However, agricultural producers should not be overly concerned about a lower valued dollar from the perspective of their agricultural business.Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade, Livestock Production/Industries,